Take the Risk Assessment Quiz
It's a matter of striking a balance between now and then.
Picture a nonprofit leader who spends every day putting manning the breakewater: urgent funder deadlines, last-minute staff departures, and a critical program on the brink of failure. She’s stuck in reactive mode, “another fire, another crisis, another late-night worry.” In the heat of these daily emergencies, it’s nearly impossible to step back and plan for the future. Her organization might have a glossy strategic plan filled with big dreams. A plan that sits on a shelf because it’s disconnected from the nonprofit’s current resources, risks, and capacity. This short-term focus (constant crisis management) paired with aspirational planning (long-term plans that are more wishful than workable) is a recipe for undermining resilience.
When all energy is spent on today’s emergencies, tomorrow’s goals get neglected. When strategic plans are unrealistic and disconnected from reality, they foster frustration and cynicism among staff and board members, rendering the organization more fragile than adaptable. In short, nonprofits can end up bouncing between avoiding floods and chasing lofty visions, without steady progress toward a sustainable mission.
Why does this dynamic undermine resilience? Resilience is an organization’s ability to absorb shocks and seize opportunities. That requires both a stable short-term footing and a clear, realistic long-term direction. Constant short-term scrambling exhausts staff and depletes resources, leaving no bandwidth to plan ahead or invest in capacity. Meanwhile, strategic plans that ignore present realities often fail at implementation. They are viewed as impractical wish-lists rather than actionable roadmaps. As a result, important strategic issues fall through the cracks. Challenge #11 in Managing Your Nonprofit for Resilience focused on bridging the gap between urgent needs and long-term goals. We need to translate long-term aspirations into actionable steps today, to avoid the trap of constant firefighting.
When MNFR was published in late 2022, nonprofits were emerging from the immediate crisis of the pandemic. But the past few years have brought new challenges and shifts in how organizations approach planning and prioritization
The era of upheaval didn’t end in 2022. Economic swings, inflation, workforce shortages, and geopolitical events have kept nonprofits on their toes. Many organizations recognized that traditional 5-year plans were too static for these uncertain times. In response, some nonprofits have moved toward more adaptive, real-time strategic planning models. For instance, rather than taking a year to draft a perfect long-term plan, nonprofits are doing rolling plans or scenario planning that they revisit frequently. This indicates a growing awareness that timing and adaptability matter. A beautifully crafted plan is pointless if done at the wrong moment or ignored during a crisis.
There are signs that board norms and funder requirements around planning have been evolving. Many boards, having lived through the pandemic chaos, now expect management to be candid about risks and build flexibility into plans. Board members still want a vision for the future, but they are also asking, “What’s Plan B if things go sideways?” In some cases, boards have become more understanding about adjusting strategic goals when new risks emerge, as long as there is transparency.
At the same time, some boards are eager to regain momentum and may push for ambitious growth targets, which can revive the old problem of aspirational plans. The key is that boards are increasingly recognizing their role in balancing risk and reward. They are learning that setting direction doesn’t mean dictating unachievable goals, but rather ensuring the organization can pivot and stay on mission under changing conditions.
Funders have also sent mixed signals. On the one hand, the philanthropic sector has made progress since 2020 in providing more flexible support. Trust-based philanthropy advocates for multi-year, unrestricted funding, and indeed, about 67% of foundations reported awarding at least one multiyear grant in 2022. I'm aware of numerous clients who received general operating grants over a period of years to help nonprofits plan beyond the immediate term. This is a positive trend as multi-year commitments and reduced restrictions give nonprofits breathing room to think strategically instead of chasing monthly survival. It’s common for grant applications to ask for a strategic plan or a theory of change. But if that plan is overly idealistic or out-of-date, it can hurt credibility.
In 2023 and 2024, funders and nonprofits started asking deeper questions about capacity and risk. Can this nonprofit realistically execute this plan? What risks could derail it, and how are they being managed? These questions reflect a slowly shifting norm. Strategic planning is no longer seen as a perfunctory exercise, but as part of due diligence for resilience.
As we have noted in this blog, however, the Federal government has done the sector no favors. The Trump Administration has declared war on the sector. By doing so, it has belied the stability of many major nonprofits that rely on federal funding, leading to a dramatic shift to short-term, reactive decision-making.
If it weren't for the unprecedented terror of the Trump Administration's changes, I would have been tempted to conclude that the problem of short-term thinking and aspirational planning has gotten less acute since the publication of my book. If you had asked me on January 19, 2025, for example, I would have said that nonprofits are beginning to change their ways, and boards and funders' expectations are shifting. Yet the subsequent cascade of crises impacting virtually all nonprofits has forced most nonprofits to focus intensely on short-term financial stability and short-term performance. When the storm is pounding the shore, and more clouds lurk on the horizon, it is difficult to think beyond the here and now. In my next post, I will talk about what the best nonprofits are doing about these challenges.
Risk Alternatives enhances the resilience and sustainability of nonprofits through comprehensive tools, training, and support. For inquiries about conducting a risk inventory or other matters, please contact Risk Alternatives at info@tedbilich.com.